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NGL Energy Partners LP: 2025 Analyst Outlook

 What Analysts Are Saying About NGL Energy Partners LP Stock in 2025: Consensus Ratings, Price Targets, and Investor Insights

NGL Energy Partners LP stock analysis

Key Takeaways

  • Hold Consensus with Caution: Most analysts rate NGL Energy Partners LP stock as a Hold, citing steady water solutions growth but revenue declines in crude and liquids logistics.
  • Price Targets Vary Widely: Average targets hover at $10-17, implying up to 175% upside from current levels near $6, though some see downside risks to $5.
  • Earnings Recovery Expected: Forecasts show EPS improving to $0.26 in 2026 and $0.49 in 2027, driven by cost efficiencies and Permian Basin demand.
  • Limited Coverage Signals Volatility: Only 1-2 active analysts ' opinions can swing fast—watch for Q3 earnings on November 6, 2025.
  • Long-Term Potential in Renewables: NGL's pivot to water recycling and renewables could boost margins, but oil price swings pose risks.

Introduction

Imagine you're sifting through the wild world of energy stocks, where one day crude oil prices soar on Middle East tensions, and the next they're tumbling due to a surprise OPEC cut. It's a rollercoaster, right? And right in the thick of it sits NGL Energy Partners LP (NYSE: NGL), a midstream powerhouse that's been quietly chugging along since 1940. Founded in Tulsa, Oklahoma, this master limited partnership (MLP) doesn't just transport oil and gas—it's got its hands in everything from crude logistics to water solutions that keep the Permian Basin humming. But here's the hook: as we hit October 2025, with global energy demand rebounding post-recession whispers, what are the sharp-eyed Wall Street analysts whispering about NGL stock? Are they bullish on its turnaround, or urging caution amid revenue dips?

If you're an investor eyeing midstream plays, you've probably stumbled on NGL Energy Partners LP stock while hunting for undervalued gems. Trading around $6 as of mid-October 2025, it's down from peaks but showing flickers of life—recently crossing its 200-day moving average at $4.44, up 1.5% in a session. That's no small feat in a sector battered by volatile commodity prices and shifting regulations. But let's cut to the chase: the analyst consensus on NGL Energy Partners LP stock leans towards "Hold," with a smattering of Buy calls from optimists betting on its water business. Why? Because while earnings have been bumpy—Q1 2026 saw a surprise EPS beat at $0.04 versus expectations of -$0.11—the bigger picture shows revenue shrinking 58% year-over-year to $2.36 billion projected for 2026. Ouch.

Now, don't switch tabs yet. This isn't just dry numbers; it's a story of resilience. NGL operates in three key segments: Water Solutions, Crude Oil Logistics, and Liquids Logistics. The star here is Water Solutions, handling produced water from fracking ops in the Delaware Basin via pipelines and disposal wells. With U.S. shale output hitting record highs—over 13 million barrels per day in Q3 2025—this segment's Adjusted EBITDA jumped 20% last quarter. Analysts love that; it's recession-proof and eco-friendly, aligning with Biden-era pushes for sustainable energy. Crude Oil Logistics? It's trucking and railroading black gold, but margins are squeezed by lower volumes. Liquids Logistics deals in propane and butane, with a nice export terminal in Chesapeake, Virginia, but ethanol blending feels the pinch from EV hype.

Diving deeper, let's unpack the analyst chatter. Sites like Yahoo Finance and TipRanks paint a consensus of Hold from just one or two voices in recent months—think Wells Fargo reiterating Hold at $5 in February 2025, or Texas Capital Securities kicking off coverage with a Buy at $13 in January. That's a spread! The average price target? A tantalising $10-17, per MarketWatch and Barron's, suggesting 65-175% upside if things click. But here's the rub: coverage is thin. Only a handful of firms track NGL, so one downgrade could tank sentiment. Recent upgrades, like Wells Fargo bumping to Equalweight from Underweight in mid-2025 with a $4 target (now outdated), show flickers of hope.

Why the mixed bag? Energy markets are a beast. WTI crude hovered at $72 per barrel in October 2025, up 5% monthly, boosting midstream peers like Enterprise Products Partners (up 12% YTD). NGL's lagged, down 8% YTD, thanks to a $30 million Q1 income from continuing ops—better than last year's $17.6 million, but still modest. Analysts forecast EPS recovery: $0.26 for fiscal 2026 (from -$0.60 last year) and $0.49 in 2027, per single-analyst estimates on Yahoo. Revenue? A stark drop to $2.36 billion in 2026 from $5.72 billion, as NGL sheds non-core assets like its biodiesel ops. Smart move? Analysts say yes—frees cash for debt reduction, with leverage at 3.5x EBITDA, down from 5x.

Picture this: You're at a Tulsa diner, overhearing roughnecks chat about Permian water woes. NGL's got 569 employees tackling that, recycling 80% of produced water versus the industry 60%. That's gold for ESG investors. But risks loom—Fitch rates it B Stable as of December 2024, citing covenant headroom but sensitivity to oil dips. Morningstar flags it trading at an 847% premium to fair value (quant model), screaming overvaluation to bears.

As we unpack this 1,300-word opener (yes, we're building to it), consider NGL's history. Born from 1940s propane roots, it ballooned via acquisitions in the 2010s shale boom, hitting $20+ shares pre-2020 crash. COVID gutted demand; NGL pivoted, selling retail fuel for $300 million in 2023. Now, with Q4 2025 earnings fresh (Adjusted EBITDA $623 million, up slightly), eyes are on November 6's Q3 release. Will it beat? Analysts trimmed EPS to $0 for the September quarter from $0.04, but revisions trend up for 2026.

Investor tip: Track peers. NGL's 16.52% relative strength scores 85/100 on AAII's momentum gauge—outpacing laggards. Dividend? 11.765% on Class B preferred units, paid October 15, 2025. Yield hunters salivate, but common units? Zilch since the 2020 cuts.

This intro sets the stage: NGL Energy Partners LP stock isn't a slam-dunk, but analyst nuance suggests opportunity for patient souls. We've covered segments, forecasts, and vibes—now, let's drill into details.


Understanding the Analyst Consensus on NGL Energy Partners LP Stock

When we talk about the analyst consensus on NGL Energy Partners LP stock, it's like peering into a crystal ball shaped by data, not magic. Consensus isn't one voice—it's the average mood from Wall Street pros who've crunched numbers on earnings, cash flow, and sector trends. As of October 2025, NGL earns a cautious “Hold.” The reason? Only a handful of analysts (just one or two active) cover it—keeping the chatter low but the insights realistic.

Breaking Down Ratings: Hold, Buy, or Sell?

Ratings scale from Strong Buy (5) to Strong Sell (1). NGL's score? Around 2-3, per TipRanks and MarketBeat. Here's the scoop:

  • Hold Dominance: Weiss Ratings stuck with Hold (C- grade) on October 8, 2025—no fireworks, just steady. Wells Fargo echoed this in February, citing balanced risks.
  • Buy Sparks: Texas Capital's January 2025 initiation at Buy/$13 was bold, betting on the water segment's 25% EBITDA growth.
  • No Sells Lately: Downgrades faded post-2024; focus is on stability.

This mix reflects NGL's pivot. In a 500-word deep dive: Energy MLPs like NGL thrive on fee-based revenues—80% of Water Solutions income is contractual, shielding from price swings. But Crude Logistics? Spot market exposure bit hard in Q2 2025, with volumes down 15% YoY amid rig count dips (Baker Hughes: 580 Permian rigs, flat). Analysts model a 10% rebound if WTI holds $70+.

Practical tip: Use free tools like Yahoo Finance's analyst tab. Cross-check with Seeking Alpha for crowd wisdom—NGL's forum buzzes with "undervalued at 0.5x EV/EBITDA" chatter.

Price Targets: From $5 to $17—What's Realistic?

Price targets are the fun part—projected share prices in 12 months. NGL's range? Wild: $5 (Wells Fargo) to $17 (MarketWatch average from two firms). Implied upside: 175% at the high end, downside 18% at the low.

Let's table it out for clarity:

Analyst FirmDateRatingPrice TargetUpside/Downside from $6.10
Texas Capital SecuritiesJan 2025Buy$13.00+113%
Wells FargoFeb 2025Hold$5.00-18%
TR (OpenAI model)Aug 2025Hold$5.50-10%
Consensus (Barron's)Oct 2025Overweight$17.00+179%

Source: Aggregated from TipRanks, MarketBeat. Note: Thin coverage inflates variance—watch for updates post-earnings.

In examples: Like Deere & Co. (DE) in 2024, where analysts hiked targets 20% on farm bill tailwinds (from $350 to $420), NGL could surge if Permian water regs tighten. Fact: The U.S. produced 20 billion barrels of water in 2024; NGL handles 5%. Stat: EV/EBITDA at 4.2x versus peer 7x, per Yahoo—bargain?

Internal link suggestion: Dive deeper into MLP valuations in our guide to energy sector picks.

Check EIA's Permian outlook for volume forecasts.

NGL's Business Segments: Where Analysts See Growth and Risks

NGL Energy Partners LP's stock's fate is tied to its ops. Analysts dissect segments for clues.

Water Solutions: The Bright Spot

This 40% revenue chunk shines. Pipelines span 200 miles in the Delaware Basin; disposal wells process 1.2 million barrels daily. Q1 2026: EBITDA up 22% to $45 million. Analysts forecast 15% CAGR through 2027, per single-source estimates.

Why bullish? ESG tailwinds—recycling cuts freshwater use 30%. Tip: Pair NGL with peers like ProPetro for diversified exposure.

Bullet points on strengths:

  • Contract Stability: 90% take-or-pay deals.
  • Expansion Plans: $50 million capex for new wells in 2026.
  • Margin Edge: 35% vs. industry 25%.

Risk: Droughts spike costs; analysts trim if regs loosen.

Crude Oil Logistics: Bumpy but Essential

Trucking 100,000 barrels daily, this segment dipped 10% YoY. Analysts eye recovery: Volumes +8% Q3 estimate on rig upticks.

Example: Like 2023's rail boom post-ENBRIDGE outage, NGL's fleet could gain if pipelines clog.

Liquids Logistics: Propane Plays and Renewables Bet

Exports butane via Virginia terminal; blending ethanol. Revenue -20% projected for 2026, but renewables pivot (biofuels) adds $100 million potential.

Analysts: Hold here—EV shift caps upside.

Recent Performance and Earnings: Analyst Reactions

NGL's stock popped 8.39% in mid-October 2025, per AAII, on a momentum score of 85. Q4 2025: EPS -$0.11 (beat est. -$0.21 by 48%). Full year: Adjusted EBITDA $623 million, flat.

Surprises table:

QuarterEst. EPSActualSurprise %
Q1 2025-0.110.04+136%
Q2 20250.01-0.12-1,300%
Q3 2025 (Est.)0??

Facts: Debt down $200 million YTD; free cash flow $150 million. Analysts upped 2026 EPS by 160% in 30 days (Yahoo).

Compare to the 2024 earnings recap.

SEC filings on EDGAR.

News snippet: Preferred distributions paid October 15, 2025—$17 million Class D.

Investor Tips: How to Use Analyst Insights on NGL Stock

Conversational nudge: Don't chase headlines—build a watchlist.

  • Track Revisions: Upward trends signal buys; Yahoo's tab shows +1 up last 30 days for 2026.
  • Diversify: 5-10% portfolio in midstream; pair with EPD.
  • Earnings Prep: November 6 call—dial (877) 545-0523.

Example: Deere analysts flipped Buy post-Q3 2024 on $52 billion revenue; NGL could mirror if water hits $600 million.

Risks: Oil to $60 crashes targets 20%, per models.

FAQs: Trending Questions on NGL Energy Partners LP Stock

Based on Google Trends and forums (October 2025 spikes: "NGL stock buy or sell?"):

Is NGL Energy Partners LP Stock a Buy in 2025?

It depends—analysts say Hold, but Texas Capital's Buy/$13 screams upside if water grows 20%. Current P/E is negative on losses, but the forward 23x is reasonable.

What's the Analyst Price Target for NGL?

Averages $10-17; TipRanks $5.50 conservative. From $6, that's 67-179% potential—watch oil.

Why Is NGL Stock Down Despite Earnings Beats?

Revenue cliff from asset sales; 58% drop projected. But EBITDA steady at $623 million signals pivot success.

Will NGL Pay Dividends Again?

Preferred yes (11.7% yield); common paused since 2020. Analysts eye resumption if FCF tops $200 million in 2026.

How Does NGL Compare to Peers?

Versus MPLX: NGL's 4.2x EV/EBITDA vs. 8x—cheaper, but thinner margins (15% vs. 40%).

Trending: "NGL Permian exposure?"—High, 70% revenue tied.

Conclusion

Wrapping up, the analyst consensus on NGL Energy Partners LP stock is a measured Hold, blending Hold caution with Buy optimism on water-driven recovery. Targets suggest big upside, but thin coverage means volatility—EPS to $0.49 by 2027 could change that. NGL's not flashy, but in energy's steady underbelly, it's worth watching.

Ready to act? Review your portfolio, set alerts for November earnings, and consult an advisor. What's your take on NGL—bullish or sidelined? Drop a comment below!

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