Feb. 25 Will Be a Huge Day for Nvidia — 3 Critical Things to Watch in the Q4 2026 Earnings Report
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Key Takeaways
- NVIDIA reports Q4 FY2026 earnings on 25 February 2026 after the market closes, with analysts expecting revenue of around $65.7 billion — up 67% year-on-year.
- The Blackwell GPU architecture is the star of the show; investors want to know how fast it is ramping and whether margins are recovering toward the mid-70s.
- Jensen Huang's forward guidance for Q1 FY2027 (Wall Street expects ~$75 billion) may matter more to the stock price than the actual Q4 numbers.
- China remains a wild card — ongoing US export restrictions and Beijing's reported pause on H200 orders could weigh on the outlook.
- Hyperscaler capital expenditure for AI infrastructure is projected at roughly $650 billion in 2026, up from $410 billion in 2025 — the single biggest tailwind for Nvidia's data centre business.
Introduction: Why the Whole World Is Watching Nvidia on 25 February
Let's be honest — when was the last time a single company's quarterly results could move global stock markets?
For Nvidia, that is now a regular day at the office—but for the market, it's the biggest event of the week. After the market closes on 25 February 2026. "For Nvidia, that is now a regular day at the office—but for the market, it's the biggest event of the week. After the market closes on 25 February 2026, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) will release its fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. CEO Jensen Huang will then join CFO Colette Kress on a conference call with Wall Street analysts at 5 p.m. Eastern Time — and millions of investors across the globe will be glued to every word.
This is not just another chip company announcing quarterly profits. NVIDIA has become, rather remarkably, the beating heart of the global AI boom. Its graphics processing units (GPUs) power the data centres of Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta. They train the large language models that you and I interact with every day. And right now, demand for those chips is so strong that, as Jensen Huang famously said just a few months ago, "Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out."
So why does this particular earnings report feel so significant? A few reasons.
First, the numbers are genuinely staggering. Analysts at major banks expect Nvidia to report revenue of roughly $65.7 billion for the quarter, more than the annual GDP of many small nations, earned in just three months. Earnings per share are forecast at around $1.53, up nearly 72% from the same quarter last year. The company has beaten analyst expectations for 13 consecutive quarters. That is an almost unheard-of streak.
Second, the stock has had a bumpy few months. After hitting an all-time high of $212.19 in late October 2025, shares pulled back into a correction and have been consolidating. As of this week, NVDA trades around $191 — up about 2.7% for 2026 so far, but well below its peak. Investors are nervous. They want reassurance that the AI spending supercycle is real and durable, not a bubble about to burst.
Third — and this is crucial — it is not just about Nvidia. The results will tell us whether the four biggest hyperscalers (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta) are right to be planning a combined $650 billion in AI infrastructure spending this year. If Nvidia's order book looks healthy and guidance is strong, that validates the entire AI trade. If Huang sounds even slightly cautious, markets could wobble.
Think of it this way: Nvidia is the electricity meter for the AI economy. When the meter is running fast, everyone is spending and building. When it slows, people start to worry.
So, what exactly should you be watching when those results drop on Wednesday? There are three big things. Let us walk through each one in plain English.
The Blackwell Ramp: Is the New GPU Living Up to the Hype?
What Is Blackwell and Why Does It Matter?
If you have followed Nvidia for even a short while, you have probably heard the word Blackwell thrown around a lot lately. Blackwell is Nvidia's latest generation of GPU architecture — the successor to Hopper (which powered the famous H100 chip). The flagship Blackwell products are the B200 and GB200 chips, with the GB300 now also entering full production.
These chips are not just incrementally better than their predecessors. They are substantially more powerful and more energy-efficient. Jensen Huang has stated that Blackwell delivers roughly $30 billion in revenue per gigawatt of power consumed, compared to $20–25 billion for the older Ampere architecture. For AI companies spending billions on electricity bills, that is a compelling upgrade.
What the Numbers Say
Blackwell revenue is expected to jump from around $7.1 billion last year to $93.7 billion this full fiscal year — an extraordinary ramp-up. For Q4 alone, the Data Centre segment (which includes Blackwell) is projected at somewhere between $57 billion and $62.6 billion, depending on which analyst you ask.
The GB300 chip is said to represent roughly two-thirds of Blackwell revenue, so any update on production volumes and shipment timelines for the GB200 and GB300 will be closely watched.
What Investors Want to Hear
Investors want three things here:
Production confidence. Are supply chain bottlenecks at TSMC (the chip manufacturer) and in CoWoS packaging easing? Last year, supply constraints capped Nvidia's revenue upside. If that is now improving, the growth ceiling lifts.
Early Rubin visibility. NVIDIA's next generation after Blackwell is called Rubin, expected to ramp in the second half of 2026. Rubin architecture visibility is crucial for the H2 CY2026 ramp, ensuring smooth transitions without order pauses, while preserving pricing power and mid-70s margins.
Inference demand. Building and training AI models is only part of the equation. Operating them in real-world applications — a process called “inference” — is a separate challenge. Jensen has described inference as "the hardest of all" AI workloads, and noted that reasoning capabilities mean "the amount of computation necessary has gone completely exponential." If enterprise inference spending An acceleration in inference activity would signal a sustained second wave of demand, building upon the original training-driven surge.
Can NVIDIA’s Gross Margins Climb Back to the Mid-70s?
Why Margins Are the Story Beneath the Story
Revenue growth is exciting. From a long-term investment perspective, gross profit margins indicate whether a company possesses sustainable pricing power, rather than relying on lower prices to boost sales volume.
NVIDIA’s margins aren’t quite what they were. After topping 76% in the nine months to October 2024, operating gross margin fell to 69.5% a year later, pressured by rising costs.
The positive takeaway is that management has signalled a recovery in margins. The stated objective is to conclude fiscal year 2026 with gross margins in the mid-70s. For Q4 specifically, guidance points to GAAP gross margins of roughly 74.8%.
What a Margin Recovery Would Signal
Should Q4 margins reach the mid-70s, it would communicate two critical messages to the market:
First, Blackwell production costs are moderating as yield rates increase and manufacturing scales. It is common for early-generation chips to carry higher costs, which gradually ease as fabrication processes stabilize and efficiencies improve.
Second, Nvidia still has pricing power. This matters enormously because rivals — including AMD, Intel, and increasingly the hyperscalers themselves (Google's TPUs, Amazon's Trainium chips) — are all trying to chip away at Nvidia's dominance. Sustained or expanding margins would suggest that NVIDIA retains meaningful pricing power, with customers opting for its integrated hardware and CUDA platform instead of migrating to cheaper substitutes.
Mini Case Study: Microsoft's AI Capex as a Proxy
Look at Microsoft. It plans to spend around $80 billion on AI infrastructure in fiscal 2026 — and a large slice of that is headed straight to NVIDIA.
Microsoft isn’t racing to replace NVIDIA; it’s doubling down on Azure AI built around its chips. When a tech titan of that scale keeps signing the cheques every quarter, that’s real-world proof of pricing power — far more convincing than any spreadsheet projection.
The China Question: Geopolitics Meets Business
The Overhang That Won't Go Away
As investors approach Wednesday’s report, China stands out as the most uncertain and potentially volatile wildcard.
Throughout most of 2025, US government export restrictions limited NVIDIA’s ability to supply its highest-performance products, notably the H100 and H200, to Chinese buyers. Given China’s prior importance as a revenue contributor, the constraints weighed noticeably on overall sales.
Where Things Stand Now
Guidance risk: The Q4 results may meet expectations, but if Jensen Huang forecasts Q1 FY2027 revenue below the roughly $75 billion Wall Street anticipates, the stock could decline despite a solid quarter. Ultimately, the market reaction is likely to depend more on forward guidance than on backwards-looking results.
Adding another layer of uncertainty, Beijing has moved to suspend H200 purchases, with reports indicating that Chinese customs officials have been directed to block shipments of NVIDIA’s H200 chips at the border.
So the situation is messy from both sides. Uncertainty persists on the US side regarding export approvals, and China seems to be retaliating by limiting chip imports. While China's revenue has shrunk significantly due to export bans, it hasn't hit zero yet, as Nvidia continues to sell tailored, lower-performance chips like the H20 in the region."— meaning Current consensus estimates assume little to no contribution from China. Any indication from Jensen Huang of renewed access or improved conditions would likely be viewed as a positive surprise by the market.
Why This Matters Beyond Nvidia
The implications of the China question reach far beyond corporate earnings. At stake is influence over the global AI technology stack. The International Monetary Fund has noted that AI infrastructure may drive significant productivity gaps among countries over the next decade.
In that context, export controls and import restrictions function as instruments of economic statecraft, shaping competitive advantage at a national level.
Hyperscaler Capex: The Tide That Lifts Nvidia's Boat
$650 Billion Reasons to Be Optimistic
A key supportive factor for NVIDIA heading into Wednesday’s report is that its primary customers are investing at unprecedented levels.
Capital expenditure on AI infrastructure from Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft is projected to reach about $650 billion in 2026, compared with $410 billion in 2025. That is a 59% increase in one year. Every pound (or dollar) of that spending eventually flows, at least in part, through Nvidia's order book.
According to analyst commentary, NVIDIA’s primary customers — Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta — have either reaffirmed or increased their capex growth outlooks for this year, reinforcing the case for sustained infrastructure spending. continued 50%+ growth trajectory for Nvidia. Bas ek line add kar dein: While institutional giants like Bridgewater have shown interest, retail sentiment remains the real driver for post-earnings volatility.
By recently raising his stake in NVIDIA, he has demonstrated increased conviction in the durability of AI-driven capital expenditure. Given his macro-oriented investment style, the move implies a view that the AI infrastructure cycle is structural in nature, not merely cyclical. When traditionally cautious investors accumulate a growth-oriented name, the signal merits attention.
What Could Go Wrong? (Being Honest About the Risks)
Sound investing requires confronting uncomfortable truths. These are the key risks that deserve attention:
Forward guidance remains the key variable. Even if Q4 performance is strong, revenue guidance for Q1 FY2027 below the $75 billion consensus could trigger a sell-off. In practice, valuation will be shaped less by reported results and more by management’s outlook.
Competition grows. Google's TPUs, Amazon's Trainium, and Broadcom's custom AI chips are all improving. NVIDIA's CUDA software ecosystem remains a powerful moat, but it is not invincible.
AI spending peaks. Greg Jensen of Bridgewater Associates has warned that the AI cycle may have moved into a “more dangerous phase,” marked by exponential growth in infrastructure spending and a rising reliance on outside capital to sustain expansion. If companies start to question the return on investment from all this AI spending, orders could slow.
NVIDIA Stock Price Outlook: What Analysts Think
Analyst price targets for NVDA range from $195 to $352, with a consensus Buy rating and a consensus price target of $261.54. That implies roughly 37% upside from current levels around $191.
One analyst at Wedbush has a $250 price target, which is more than 30% above current levels, and says investors "would be buyers of Nvidia stock into this report."
That said, one analyst argues that NVDA's share price is discounting a 2026 peak in AI demand — suggesting the stock may be undervalued relative to peers whose valuations already price in a multi-year AI cycle.
Conclusion: Wednesday Is a Moment of Truth
NVIDIA's Q4 2026 earnings on 25 February are about far more than one company's quarterly profit. They are a referendum on the AI infrastructure boom, on the durability of hyperscaler spending, and on whether the world's most valuable chip company can sustain its extraordinary growth.
Watch for three things when the results drop: the Blackwell ramp (B200 and GB200 shipment timelines, GB300 production), the gross margin recovery (are we back in the mid-70s?), and the China situation (any progress on export restrictions?).
Above all, listen closely to Jensen Huang's forward guidance. In recent quarters, what he says about the next quarter has mattered far more to the stock price than the current quarter's numbers.
Whether you are a seasoned investor or just someone trying to understand why AI stocks dominate the financial news every week, Wednesday is a day worth paying attention to.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q: When exactly does Nvidia report Q4 2026 earnings? NVIDIA will release its Q4 FY2026 results on Wednesday, 25 February 2026, after the market closes (approximately 1:20 p.m. PT / 4:20 p.m. ET). The conference call with Jensen Huang and CFO Colette Kress begins at 5 p.m. ET.
Q: What revenue is Nvidia expected to report for Q4 2026? Analysts expect revenue of approximately $65.7 billion, up around 67% year-on-year. NVIDIA's own guidance was for $65 billion ±2%.
Q: What is the Blackwell GPU, and why is everyone talking about it? Blackwell is Nvidia's latest chip architecture, featuring the B200 and GB200 GPUs. It is significantly faster and more energy-efficient than previous generations, making it the preferred choice for AI training and inference workloads. It is expected to generate the majority of Nvidia's data centre revenue going forward.
Q: Will China affect Nvidia's earnings? China is a major uncertainty. US export restrictions have effectively reduced Nvidia's China data centre revenue to near-zero in current analyst forecasts. Any positive or negative update from Jensen Huang on the China situation could move the stock meaningfully.
Q: What is Jensen Huang expected to say about AI demand? Investors expect Huang to confirm that demand for AI chips continues to significantly outpace supply, that the Blackwell ramp is on track, and that the $500 billion+ opportunity in Blackwell and Rubin chips through 2026 remains intact.
Q: How do Nvidia's results affect the broader stock market?NVIDIA has become a bellwether for the entire AI trade. Strong results and guidance typically lift semiconductor stocks, cloud computing stocks, and AI-adjacent companies. A disappointment can drag the whole sector lower.
Q: What is the Nvidia Rubin chip, and when does it launch? Rubin is Nvidia's next-generation GPU architecture, expected to begin ramping in the second half of calendar year 2026. It will succeed Blackwell and is already generating early customer interest. How clearly Jensen Huang discusses Rubin timelines on Wednesday will be closely watched.
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