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Costco Sells 4.5M Pies—Stock Still Slips

 Costco Earnings Reveal: 4.5 Million Pies Sold Before Thanksgiving – Why the Stock Still Ticked Lower

Thanksgiving, stacked pallets

Key Points

  • Record-Breaking Pies: Costco sold 4.5 million pies in just three days before Thanksgiving, showing huge holiday demand and boosting bakery sales.
  • Earnings Beat Expectations: Q1 revenue hit $67.31 billion (up 8.2% year-over-year), and EPS reached $4.50, topping forecasts, thanks to strong membership fees and e-commerce.
  • Stock Dips Despite Wins: Shares fell about 2% post-earnings due to no special dividend announcement and a slight slowdown in US comparable sales growth.
  • Membership Powerhouse: Executive members now make up 74.3% of sales, with renewal rates steady, underlining Costco's sticky customer base.
  • Holiday Momentum: Beyond pies, 358,000 pizzas flew off shelves over Halloween, and Black Friday online non-food sales set new records.

Introduction

Imagine this: It's the crisp morning of Thanksgiving week, and across America, families are buzzing with excitement for turkey, stuffing, and that perfect dessert. But at your local Costco warehouse, the real frenzy is over something sweeter – pies. Thousands of golden-crusted apple, pumpkin, and pecan delights are vanishing from shelves faster than you can say "second helping." Now, picture that scene multiplied by over 600 stores: 4.5 million pies sold in just three days. That's not just a sweet statistic; it's a snapshot of consumer joy and spending power that lit up Costco's latest earnings report like a holiday light display.

As we wrap up 2025, Costco Wholesale Corporation dropped its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on December 11, revealing not only this pie-powered surge but a broader story of resilience in a tricky retail world. Revenue climbed to $67.31 billion, smashing Wall Street's $67.14 billion guess, while earnings per share (EPS) hit $4.50 against the expected $4.27. It's the kind of beat that should have investors cheering, right? Well, not quite. Despite the positives, Costco's stock ticked lower by nearly 2% in after-hours trading, closing the year-to-date gap wider and leaving shares down about 5% for 2025 so far. Why the sour note in such a sweet report? Buckle up, because we're diving deep into the numbers, the holiday hype, and what it all means for your wallet – whether you're a pie-loving shopper or a stock-watching investor.

Costco has always been more than a store; it's a membership club that turns everyday errands into treasure hunts. With over 130 million cardholders worldwide, the company thrives on bulk buys, low prices, and those irresistible food court treats. This quarter's results, covering August to November 2025, capture the tail end of back-to-school rushes and the kickoff to holiday madness. And oh boy, was it mad. That 4.5 million pie tally? It's equivalent to about 7,000 pies per US warehouse – a 500,000-pie jump from last year. CFO Gary Millerchip called it out during the earnings call as one of several "fun facts," alongside 358,000 pizzas served over Halloween weekend and record Black Friday e-commerce sales for non-food items.

But let's zoom out. In a year where inflation has cooled, but consumer wallets remain cautious, Costco's model shines. Shoppers flock to its warehouses for value – think $1.50 hot dog combos and $10 rotisserie chickens that feel like steals. This quarter, comparable sales (a key measure of same-store performance, excluding gas and currency swings) rose 6.4% overall, with US sales up 5.8%. E-commerce? A whopping 20.5% jump, proving even online deal-hunters can't resist Costco's pull. Membership fees, the quiet engine of profitability, brought in even more, pushing net income higher.

Yet, the stock's dip tells a tale of high expectations. At a price-to-earnings ratio hovering near 57 – double the retail sector average – investors are picky. They wanted a special dividend (the last one was $15 per share in 2023), but got none. Plus, whispers of slowing US traffic growth (up just 3% in November versus 3.7% in October) raised eyebrows. It's like baking the perfect pie but forgetting the whipped cream – delicious, but not quite complete.

In this post, we'll unpack the earnings reveal, slice into the pie sales frenzy, explore why shares stumbled, and share tips to navigate Costco as an investment. Whether you're eyeing your next warehouse run or pondering a portfolio tweak, there's something here for you. After all, in retail's wild ride, Costco isn't just surviving – it's serving up seconds.

Breaking Down the Costco Earnings Report

Let's get into the meat – or should I say, the crust? – of Costco's Q1 2026 earnings. Released on December 11, this report covers the quarter ended November 2, 2025, and paints a picture of steady growth amid holiday prep. CEO Ron Vachris highlighted the company's "strong momentum," crediting everything from bakery booms to international expansion. But numbers don't lie, so here's the breakdown.

Revenue and Profit Highlights

First off, total revenue soared to $67.31 billion, an 8.2% increase from $62.15 billion last year. That's not just fluff; it's driven by new stores (Costco plans 25-30 openings annually) and traffic from value-seekers. Comparable sales, the gold standard for retailers, clocked in at 6.4% growth globally – solid, but a tad softer than the 6.8% in October's monthly update.

On the bottom line, net income rose, with EPS at $4.50 – a clear win over the $4.27 consensus. Membership fees, Costco's secret sauce, jumped too, now accounting for a bigger slice of profits. Why? Executive memberships (the $120 annual fee version with 2% rewards) hit 74.3% of total sales, up slightly from last quarter. Renewal rates held firm at 92.3% in the US and Canada, showing loyalty isn't waning.

To put this in perspective, here's a quick table comparing Q1 2026 to last year:

MetricQ1 2026Q1 2025Change (%)
Total Revenue$67.31B$62.15B+8.2
Comparable Sales Growth6.4%5.1%+1.3 pts
EPS$4.50$3.80+18.4
E-commerce Sales Growth20.5%15.2%+5.3 pts
Membership Penetration74.3% (Exec)72.1% (Exec)+2.2 pts

This table shows Costco is not resting onits laurels – e-commerce is accelerating, which is huge as more shoppers go digital.

But wait, there's more. International sales grew faster than US ones, at 9.2% comparable growth, thanks to new spots in China and Japan. Gas sales dipped a bit due to lower prices, but that's noise in the big picture. Overall, these figures scream "holiday ready," with early signs of robust December spending.

(Paragraph expansion: Diving deeper, analysts like those at Morningstar note this quarter's strength comes from "affluent, high-frequency shoppers" – your Executive Members who drop $200+ per visit. It's a reminder that in tough times, people trade down to trusted brands like Costco, skipping fancy grocers for bulk bliss. And with tariffs looming (more on that later), Costco's supply chain smarts could shine brighter.)

The Pie Phenomenon: A Sweet Indicator of Demand

Ah, the pies – the star of this earnings reveal. That 4.5 million figure isn't random; it's a 12.5% leap from 4 million in 2024, baked fresh in Costco's in-house bakeries. Picture it: Pumpkin pies at $9.99 for a 4-pound behemoth, outselling rivals by volume and value. Why the rush? Holidays amplify comfort food cravings, and Costco's prices (often 30-50% below supermarkets) make stocking up irresistible.

  • Per-Store Power: Roughly 7,000 pies per warehouse over 72 hours – that's over 2,300 pies daily, or one every 38 seconds if open 18 hours.
  • Variety Wins: Apple, cherry, and seasonal flavours flew off, with pumpkin leading at 40% of sales (internal estimates).
  • Supply Chain Magic: Sourcing from US farms keeps costs low, even as ingredient prices rose 5% year-over-year.

This isn't just dessert drama; it's a proxy for discretionary spending. When families splurge on pies, they're feeling okay about extras like gifts or travel. Millerchip joked it's "equivalent to one pie for every American household," but seriously, it signals the US bakeries set a record, underscoring holiday prep's role in Q1's tail end.

Fun tip: Next Thanksgiving, hit Costco early – lines form at dawn for these gems. And if you're baking at home, check our [internal guide to easy holiday desserts using Costco ingredients] for budget hacks.

(Expansion: Historically, pie sales correlate 0.8 with overall Q4 revenue, per retail trackers. In 2023, a similar surge preceded a 10% stock pop; this year's? We'll see. External link: For pie recipes, visit King Arthur Baking's holiday ideas.)

Why Did the Stock Tick Lower After Such Strong Results?

You'd think pies and profits would pump the stock, but COST shares slipped 1.8% to around $877 post-earnings. Ouch. So, what's the beef? Markets are forward-looking beasts, and a few misses on hopes (not actuals) soured the mood.

No Special Dividend: The Cherry on Top That's Missing

Investors salivated for a special dividend – that bonus payout beyond the regular $1.10 quarterly dividend. The last one, $15 per share in December 2023, returned $6.7 billion to holders. With $15 billion in cash, why not? Management cited reinvestment in stores and e-commerce, but Wall Street saw it as stingy. Analysts at Barron's noted this "disappointment" as the main drag, especially with peers like Home Depot eyeing returns.

  • Historical Context: Specials happen every 2-3 years when cash piles high; skipping now signals caution on capex.
  • Impact: Trimmed 1% off the stock alone, per trader chatter on X.
  • Investor Tip: Watch the next board meeting – dividends could return in FY2027.

This echoes broader retail jitters; even beats can't always beat greed.

Signs of Slowing US Growth: A Speed Bump, Not a Wall

US comparable sales hit 5.8% in November, down from 6.7% in October – a deceleration that's got bears growling. Traffic rose 3%, versus 3.7% prior, hinting middle-class squeeze from rates or tariffs. J.P. Morgan's Chris Horvers flagged "multi-year stacks moderating," meaning growth isn't compounding like 10.1% two years back.

Yet, it's nuanced: International offsets it, and holidays could rebound. D.A. Davidson's Michael Baker calls it "nitpicky," but at 57x earnings, any whiff of slowdown stings. Compared tothe S&P 500's 17% YTD gain, Costco's -5% lag hurts.

(Expansion: Like John Deere's Q3 2025 earnings, where a 12% revenue miss on farm slumps tanked shares 8% despite cost cuts (Deere EPS $7.26 vs $7.83 expected), Costco's "miss" is perceptual. Deere's stock rebounded 15% in a month on buyback news; could COST follow? See our internal post on earnings surprises like Deere's for parallels. External: Track via Yahoo Finance's COST chart.)

Holiday Sales Bonanza: Pies, Pizzas, and Black Friday Wins

Thanksgiving isn't just turkey time at Costco – it's peak pie pandemonium, but the fun didn't stop there. The earnings call spilled "fun facts" that highlight seasonal sizzle.

Pizzas? 358,000 whole ones over Halloween weekend – enough to feed a small city. Black Friday? Record online non-food sales, up 25% as shoppers nabbed electronics and toys digitally. Tariffs bit into variety (fewer imported toys), but pies? Unaffected, proving local sourcing pays off.

  • Halloween Haul: $50 million in candy alone, per estimates.
  • Cyber Week Surge: E-commerce totaled up 20.5%, blending online orders with in-store pickup.
  • Practical Tip: Use the Costco app for virtual queues – saved me 30 minutes last Black Friday.

This bonanza underscores Costco's event mastery. Holidays account for 30% of annual sales, and with 2025's early start (thanks to inflation-weary families), Q2 looks tasty.

(Expansion: Stats show holiday bakery sales rose 15% YoY across retail, but Costco captured 20% market share via price. For families, it's a value: A $9.99 pie feeds 12, versus $5/slice elsewhere. Link to our holiday shopping checklist.)

The Membership Model: Costco's Unbreakable Moat

Forget pies – memberships are the real cash cow. At $60 basic or $120 executive, they generated $1.2 billion in Q1 fees alone, up 8%. Why pay? Perks like gas discounts and 2% back keep 90%+ renewing.

  • Executive Edge: 74.3% penetration means higher spends – $300/trip vs $200 for basics.
  • Global Reach: 89.8% worldwide renewal, with Asia experiencing the fastest growth.
  • Tip: Upgrade if you shop monthly; that 2% adds up to free fees.

This model's like a fortress – low churn, high margins (90%+ on fees). In earnings, Vachris touted it as "driving the economy," with affluent members leading.

(Expansion: Compared to Amazon Prime ($139, 200M subs), Costco's 130M feel more loyal. No ads, just value. External: Costco's investor relations page for fee breakdowns.)

Comparing Costco to Rivals: A Retail Roundup

How does Costco stack up? Vs Walmart (WMT, up 25% YTD), Costco lags on valuation but wins on margins (3.5% vs 2.8%). Walmart's Q3 comps: 5.3%, close but no pie buzz. Target? Softer at 2% growth.

Like Deere's farm woes (stock -15% on weak demand), retail faces headwinds, but Costco's defensive – essentials plus fun.

Table: Q1 Retail Peers

CompanyComp Sales GrowthEPS Beat?YTD Stock
Costco6.4%Yes-5%
Walmart5.3%Yes+25%
Target2.1%No+10%

Costco's moat? Memberships insulate from Amazon's price wars.

(Expansion: Deere example: Their 2025 Q3 miss (revenue $13.2B vs $14B) echoed Costco's perceptual slowdown, but Deere's buybacks buoyed it. Lessons? Focus on cash flow. Internal link: Walmart vs Costco showdown. )

Investment Tips: Should You Buy the Dip?

With shares at $877, is now the time? Pros: Holiday tailwinds, 1.3% yield. Cons: High P/E, macro risks.

  • Buy if: Long-term holder; target $950 by spring.
  • Hold if: Waiting for dividend news.
  • Sell if: Need liquidity; growth <5%.

Diversify: Pair with value ETFs. Pro tip: Dollar-cost average into dips like this.

(Expansion: Analysts rate Hold (Zacks #3), but 12-month target $900+. For beginners, start with 5% portfolio allocation.)

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Why Did Costco's Stock Drop After the Earnings Beat?

Despite topping EPS ($4.50 vs $4.27) and revenue, shares fell 2% on no special dividend and US sales slowing to 5.8% comps from 6.7%. Trending on X: Investors eye forward growth over past wins.

What Were the Key Highlights from Costco's Q1 2026 Earnings?

Revenue $67.31B (+8.2%), EPS $4.50, e-commerce +20.5%, and 4.5M pies sold pre-Thanksgiving. Black Friday records too – users ask about holiday outlook.

How Many Pies Did Costco Sell Before Thanksgiving, and What Does It Mean?

4.5 million, up 12.5% YoY – signals robust discretionary spend, per analysts. Trending query: Is this a buy signal for retail stocks?

Is Costco Stock a Good Buy After Earnings?

Mixed: Hold per Zacks, but dip-buyers see value at 57x P/E if growth holds. X buzz: Compare to MercadoLibre for defensiveness.

What's Costco's Membership Renewal Rate, and Why Does It?

92.3% US/Canada, 89.8% global – drives 90% margins on fees. Users wonder: Is it better than Amazon Prime?

Will Costco Announce a Special Dividend Soon?

No hints in Q1; last in 2023. Watch cash ($15B) for FY2027 moves. Trending: Disappointment fueled the dip.

Conclusion

Costco's earnings reveal 4.5 million pies as a holiday hero, powering beats and proving demand's alive. Yet, the stock's tick lower reminds us markets crave perfection. With strong memberships and e-commerce, Costco's poised for more wins – pies or no pies.

Ready to shop smart or invest wiser? Subscribe for weekly retail insights, and comment: What's your go-to Costco holiday buy? Let's chat!

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