UK PAYE RTI: Wages Up, Jobs Down in Sept 2025

2025 UK Pay: Why Your Bank Balance is Growing but the Job Market is Shivering

​Look, let’s be real for a second. If you’ve looked at your payslip this month and thought, "Hang on, I’ve got more cash, but I’m still worried about my job," you aren't going crazy. The latest ONS stats for September 2025 are out, and honestly? It’s a bit of a head-scratcher. We’re seeing some of the best pay growth in years, yet the actual number of people with a job is sliding.

​This whole thing comes from the PAYE RTI data, which is basically the taxman’s live feed of who is earning what. And it’s telling us that the UK economy is currently in a very weird "tug-of-war."

​The "Fatter" Paycheck: Is it Real?

​First, the big news. The average monthly pay in the UK has officially climbed to £2,568. To be fair, that’s still up 6.6% from a year ago. Now, normally, that would be cause for a massive celebration. But in 2025, things are a bit more complicated than just a bigger number on a screen.

​For the first time in what feels like forever, this pay rise actually means something. Why? Because inflation has finally stopped acting like a runaway train. When you do the math, "real" wages—that’s what you have left after the shops take their cut—are up by about 1.2%. It’s not exactly "buying a private island" money, but it’s definitely "not panicking at the supermarket checkout" money.

​But here’s the kicker: it depends entirely on what you do for a living. If you’re in the NHS or doing social work, you might be looking at a massive 11% boost. But if you’re in a private office job? You might only be seeing 3.3%. It’s a proper divide. The government is throwing money at the public sector to keep it from collapsing, while private companies are being a lot more stingy.

​The Shrinking Workforce

​Now, let’s talk about the bit that’s making everyone nervous. While pay is going up, the number of people on payrolls has dropped to 30.3 million. We’ve lost about 127,000 jobs in a year.

​Properly strange, right? Why would companies pay people more but hire fewer of them? Well, it’s simple. Bosses are scared. They’d rather keep their best staff happy with a raise than take a risk on someone new.

​If you’re in hospitality—pubs, hotels, restaurants—you’ve likely seen the worst of it. That sector alone has shed 90,000 jobs. High energy bills and the fact that a pint now costs a small fortune mean people are staying home more, and businesses are cutting staff to survive. That’s a hard spot to be in.

​The Youth Struggle and the Regional Lottery

​I’ll tell you who really has it tough right now: the under-25s. The data shows that young people are getting the short end of the stick, with 79,000 fewer jobs for them than last year. It’s like the "Experience Required" wall has just gotten five feet taller. If you’re mid-career, say 35 to 49, you’re actually seeing job numbers go up. Companies are playing it safe; they want people who already know the ropes.

​And where you live is still a massive factor. London is still the money king, with median pay over £3,000. But job numbers in the capital actually fell by 0.8%. Meanwhile, places like Northern Ireland are seeing a little bit of growth. It’s a postcode lottery, plain and simple. If you’re in a place like Wandsworth, you’re probably earning double what someone in the Isle of Wight is. That’s just the reality of the UK in 2025.

​Why Are the Vacancies Vanishing?

​You might have heard that vacancies are falling. They’re down to 728,000. Now, don't get me wrong, that’s still a lot of jobs. But it’s the 38th month in a row that the number has dropped. That’s more than three years of the job market cooling down.

​This changes things for you as a worker. A couple of years ago, you could quit your job on a Monday and have a new one by Wednesday. Now? You’d better have something lined up first. Bosses aren't as desperate as they used to be. The unemployment rate is sitting at 4.7%, which isn't a disaster, but it’s definitely a sign that the "easy" days of job hunting are over for a bit.

​The Inflation Battle: A Double-Edged Sword

​We have to mention the Bank of England, even though they’re a bit boring. These guys are watching your 6.6% pay rise with a very worried expression. Why? Because if everyone gets a big raise, they think we’ll all go out and spend it, which pushes prices back up.

​It’s a bit of a "Catch-22." We need the money to pay our bills, but the more we get, the more the Bank of England wants to keep interest rates high to stop us from spending. This is why your mortgage or car loan probably still feels like a massive weight around your neck. We’re finally catching up to inflation, but the cost of borrowing is the price we’re paying for it.

​What Should You Actually Do?

​So, if you’re reading this and wondering what your next move should be, here’s my take:

1. ​Don't jump ship without a lifejacket. The job market is cooling. If you’re going to move, make sure the new company is solid.
2. ​Look at the growth sectors. Health, education, and social work are the ones with the budgets right now. For hospitality and finance, it’s still very much a “wait and see” situation.
3. ​Negotiate. If you haven't had a raise recently, use these numbers. The average is 6.6%. If your pay isn’t going up, you’re effectively earning less in real terms.
4. ​Skills over everything. Since companies are being picky, being "okay" at your job isn't enough anymore. You’ve got to be the person they can't afford to lose.

​

The Bottom Line for 2025

​When you look at the whole picture, the UK economy isn't in a hole, but it isn't exactly sprinting either. It’s that awkward middle ground where the pay is respectable, but stability still feels fragile.

​According to the September 2025 PAYE RTI data, the workforce is holding up well. We’ve survived the worst of the cost-of-living crisis, and we’re starting to see the rewards. But the cooling job market is a reminder that we can't just coast. We have to stay sharp.

​Honestly, it’s a time for "cautious optimism." Be happy about the extra cash in your bank account, but keep an eye on the exit door just in case. The UK’s job market is a living, breathing thing, and right now, it’s taking a bit of a breather. Let’s see what the next few months bring, but for now, stay smart and keep your eye on the data.

Common Questions People Are Asking

​Is a 6.6% pay rise actually good right now?

Honestly, look, on paper, it’s great. It’s higher than the average we’ve seen in years. But the "good" part really depends on your personal bills. If your mortgage just jumped or your energy fix ended, that 6.6% might just be covering the gaps rather than making you feel rich. To be fair, though, since it's beating inflation finally, you are technically better off than last year.

​Why is it getting harder to find a job if the economy is okay?

Straight up, it's because companies are playing it safe. Even though they have money to pay existing staff, the high cost of borrowing and uncertain future mean they aren't "betting" on new people. They’d rather wait and see. It’s a "cooling" market, not a frozen one, but it definitely means you have to work harder to stand out.

​Which sectors are the safest bets for job security in 2026?

If you want to sleep easily at night, look toward the public sector—health, education, and social work. The data shows these areas are still growing and getting the biggest pay boosts. Hospitality and high-street retail are the ones feeling the most pressure right now because people are being more careful with their "fun" money.

​Should I stay in my current job or look for something new?

Look, unless you’re miserable or your company is literally sinking, 2025/2026 is a time to be cautious. With vacancies falling for over three years straight, the "grass is greener" gamble is a bit riskier than it used to be. If you do move, make sure you’ve got a solid contract signed before you even think about handing in your notice.

​Is London still the best place to work?

Properly depends on what you value. You’ll earn more in London—that’s a fact. But with job numbers in the capital dipping and the cost of a flat being what it is, some people are finding they have more "real" money left over by working in regions like Northern Ireland or the North West, where the cost of living hasn't gone quite as mental.