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Asian Bonds: Strategies, Risks & Opportunities

 Asian Bonds: Earning a Seat at the Table - A Deep Dive into Opportunities and Strategies

Asian bond market growth

               The Evolving Landscape of Asian Fixed Income

The landscape of Asian fixed income has undergone a profound transformation over the past two decades, evolving from a peripheral market to a central pillar of global investment portfolios. This evolution is not merely quantitative but also qualitative, marked by significant growth in market size, structural development, and diversification across asset classes and geographies. For investors seeking yield, capital preservation, and portfolio diversification, understanding this dynamic environment is paramount. The region's bond markets have demonstrated remarkable resilience and outperformance, making them an increasingly compelling destination for both active and passive capital allocation.

One of the most striking features of this evolution is the sheer scale of market expansion.

Since the 1997/98 Asian Financial Crisis, Asian bond markets have matured significantly, establishing robust fundamentals that attract global investors. The JP Morgan Asia Credit Index (JACI), a key benchmark for the region, saw its market capitalization grow an astonishing seven-fold between 2005 and the first half of 2024. This growth is mirrored in local currency bond markets, which reached a monumental USD 25.2 trillion by December 2023. This expansion represents a massive pool of capital with diverse opportunities spanning sovereigns, government-guaranteed entities, and a wide array of corporate issuers. The composition of this market is dominated by a few key players; China alone accounts for approximately 58% of the total local currency market value, followed by Japan and Korea, highlighting the immense influence of these economies on the regional stage.

Beyond domestic markets,

international issuance has become a vital component of the region's financial architecture. In 2024, the volume of international bonds issued by Asian entities reached US$460 billion, rebounding from declines in previous years and demonstrating strong investor demand. This issuance is geographically diverse, with major contributors including China, which accounted for US$141 billion; Japan, with US$122 billion; South Korea, setting a record with US$64 billion; and India, which rebounded strongly to US$12 billion. The sources of this debt are equally varied, with financial institutions consistently being the largest sector, though the Information Technology sector has seen explosive growth, rising from just 1% of Chinese issuance in 2023 to 5% in 2024. This demonstrates the expanding industrial base tapping into international capital markets.

A critical structural shift has been the rise of Asia as a hub for sustainable finance. 

The region is at the forefront of the global transition to a low-carbon economy, creating new asset classes and investment themes. As of the end of 2023, the ASEAN+3 region (comprising ASEAN, China, Japan, and South Korea) held USD 799 billion in outstanding sustainable bonds, representing 20% of the global total and second only to Europe. While green bonds currently dominate, accounting for 64% of the region's sustainable bond stock, there is a growing appetite for social and sustainability-linked instruments. China has emerged as one of the world's largest green bond markets, while Hong Kong issued Asia's first 30-year sovereign green bond in 2021. This burgeoning market is supported by significant policy initiatives, such as Singapore's target to issue up to SGD35 billion in Green Bonds by 2030 and Malaysia's SRI Sukuk Grant Scheme. The surge in issuance reflects a deep-seated commitment to addressing climate change and achieving sustainable development goals, with Asia needing an estimated additional $1.5 trillion annually to meet these targets by 2030.

However, the landscape is not without its complexities

Liquidity remains a persistent challenge, particularly in the secondary markets for corporate bonds across much of Asia. This is a legacy of post-2008 bank capital constraints, which led to reduced dealer inventories and tight bid-ask spreads for many issues. Furthermore, regulatory frameworks and disclosure standards are still developing, leading to inconsistencies that can create hurdles for investors. Despite these challenges, the overall trajectory points towards a more integrated, sophisticated, and attractive asset class. The combination of market depth, structural tailwinds from demographics and sustainable finance, and improving transparency provides a fertile ground for investors willing to engage actively with the region.

                        | Key Market Metrics: Asian Bond Markets | |

| :--- | :--- |

| JP Morgan Asia Credit Index (JACI) Market Cap Growth | Increased 7-fold from 2005 to H1 2024  |

| Asia Local Currency Bond Market Size | Reached USD 25.2 trillion as of Dec 2024 |

| Top 3 LCY Market Countries | China (58%), Japan, Korea  |

| International Bond Issuance Volume (2024) | US$460 billion |

| Major International Issuers (2024) | China (US$141bn), Japan (US$122bn), South Korea (US$64bn), India (US$12bn) |

| ASEAN+3 Sustainable Bond Market Size (End-2023) | USD 799 billion, 20% of global market |

| Primary Liquidity Challenge | Low secondary market liquidity for corporate bonds  |


This complex and rapidly evolving landscape requires a nuanced approach. Investors cannot simply look at broad indices or general trends. Success demands a deep understanding of the specific dynamics within each country, sector, and instrument. Active management becomes crucial for navigating the technical nuances, identifying mispriced securities, and capturing alpha in a market where opportunities often lie in the details rather than the headline figures. The journey to "earning a seat at the table" in Asian fixed income is therefore not about passively accepting the market's offerings, but about engaging deeply to unlock its full potential.

 Performance, Risk, and Opportunity in Asian Credit

Asian credit assets have recently showcased a compelling story of resilience, emerging opportunities, and strategic distinction. Amidst a backdrop of global economic uncertainty, high interest rates, and geopolitical volatility, Asian bonds have consistently demonstrated superior risk-adjusted returns compared to their developed market counterparts. This outperformance is rooted in a confluence of favorable macroeconomic conditions, healthier corporate balance sheets, and unique structural advantages that create distinct opportunities for discerning investors. However, this opportunity is not uniform across the entire asset class; it requires careful navigation through different segments—namely Investment Grade (IG) and High Yield (HY)—each presenting a different risk-reward profile.

Historically, Asian credit has offered a superior risk-return trade-off. Data from 2005 to 2023 shows that Asian bonds have generated higher returns with lower volatility compared to US bonds. This trend continued into 2024, a year marked by significant market stress from US-China tensions and Federal Reserve rate hikes. Asian credit outperformed global peers across both IG and HY segments throughout the year, driven by strong export performance from key economies like China, Korea, and Taiwan, coupled with healthy domestic demand in Southeast Asia and India. The resilience was notable even during periods of acute volatility. For instance, after US tariff announcements in April 2025 caused JACI IG spreads to widen by 30 basis points, the market staged a swift V-shaped recovery, highlighting its capacity to absorb shocks. By April 2025, Asian credit spreads were outperforming those of US and emerging market peers, underscoring the region's relative strength.

A primary driver of this outperformance is the fundamentally sound health of Asian corporations

 Compared to their US and European counterparts, Asian IG corporates exhibit significantly lower leverage. As of late 2020, the net leverage ratio for Asian IG was 1.6x, well below the 2.4x for US peers and a staggering 3.9x for European companies. This conservative balance sheet posture provides a substantial buffer against economic downturns and interest rate pressures. Even in the HY space, defaults are expected to trend downward in 2025, partly due to a significant reduction in exposure to China's troubled property sector, which had previously accounted for a large portion of regional HY debt. The Asia HY default rate stood at 2.2% in August 2020, a figure considered manageable and significantly lower than historical highs.

Furthermore, Asian bonds offer materially higher yields. 

As of October 2020, the Asian Credit Index yielded around 7.5%, far exceeding the ~4.5% yield of the Bloomberg Global Aggregate index. More specifically, Asian high-yield corporates offered a yield advantage of 270 basis points over their US counterparts. This yield differential is a powerful tool for generating returns, especially when combined with the region's positive carry outlook. With most regional central banks, excluding Japan, expected to ease monetary policy in 2025 and the US rate cutting cycle anticipated to be shallow, carry is poised to be a key return driver for Asian bond investors.

However, investors should approach with careful selectivity. The risks are concentrated, and the opportunities lie in differentiated strategies. East spring Investments, for example, maintains an underweight position in Chinese IG due to what it considers rich valuations and avoids exposure to Chinese property and local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) . Instead, the firm leans toward other markets, such as Australia. Japan, and Singapore, which offer attractive fundamentals. Japan, in particular, is viewed as a beneficiary of higher local rates boosting the creditworthiness of its financial sector. The firm also sees value in hedged local currency bonds for professional investors, which can offer access to potentially higher real yields.

Alpha generation in this environment relies on a multi-faceted approach. 

It involves deep credit analysis to identify undervalued names, tactical positioning on the yield curve, and agility in responding to macroeconomic shifts. The era of simple duration bets may be waning; tactical curve positioning is now cited as more impactful than pure duration timing. This requires a nimble and experienced team capable of navigating complex market dynamics. The opportunity set is broad, extending from gaming and retail sectors to infrastructure and renewable energy projects in India. The key takeaway is that while the Asian bond market offers a highly attractive starting point, success hinges on a disciplined, bottom-up approach that prudently manages concentration risk and leverages the diverse opportunities available across the region.

| Asian vs. Developed Market Credit Comparison | Asian Credit | Developed Market Credit |

| :--- | :--- | :--- |

| Investment Grade (IG) Net Leverage | 1.6x (vs. US: 2.4x, Europe: 3.9x)  | Higher average leverage |

| High Yield (HY) Default Rate | Expected to trend down; 2.2% in Aug 2020  | Higher historical defaults (e.g., 9% in 2009, 8% expected in US)  |

| Credit Yield (vs. Global Agg.) | ~7.5% (JACI) vs. ~3.8% (Global Agg.) | Lower absolute yields |

| High Yield (HY) Yield Advantage | 270 bps higher than US HY  | Basis of comparison |

| Risk Profile | Lower leverage, diversified trade partners, less correlated to US Fed | Higher correlation to US, greater reliance on single export markets |

 Navigating the Diversified World of Asian Bond Funds

Selecting the right vehicle to invest in Asian fixed income is a critical decision that shapes an investor's exposure, costs, and ability to capture market opportunities. The market offers a spectrum of options, ranging from passive, rules-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that provide broad market access to actively managed mutual funds that allow for tactical adjustments and deep security selection. Each approach carries distinct characteristics, and understanding the differences is essential for aligning an investment strategy with specific financial goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon. The choice is fundamentally a trade-off between cost, flexibility, and the potential for alpha generation.

At one end of the spectrum lie passive ETFs, built to track and replicate the performance of a specific market index. A prime example is the ABF Pan Asia Bond Index Fund (PAIF), listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange under the ticker 2821.HK . This fund tracks the ibex ABF Pan-Asia Index, providing investors with exposure to a diversified basket of local currency-denominated government and quasi-government bonds across eight key Asian markets: China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand .The primary appeal of a passive ETF lies in its simplicity and low cost. PAIF has an ongoing charges figure (OCF) of just 0.18%, a stark contrast to the typical 1.0% annual management fee charged by active managers like East spring Investments <URL9TV9G>. This makes it an ideal instrument for investors seeking broad, unhedged exposure to the Asian local currency bond market as a core holding in their portfolio,

 prioritizing market returns over manager skill.

However, the limitations of a passive approach become apparent when examining its performance and composition. While convenient, PAIF has a track record of underperforming its benchmark index. Over various time horizons, the fund has lagged the index by a small but consistent margin, indicating tracking error that detracts from gross returns. Its portfolio is heavily weighted towards government and quasi-government debt, with less than 5% allocated to corporate bonds. This limits exposure to the higher-yielding and more dynamic corporate credit segment of the market. For investors whose sole objective is to gain a cheap, diversified entry point into Asian local currencies, an ETF like PAIF is a viable tool. But for those seeking to enhance returns or navigate the complexities of credit selection, the limitations of a passive mandate become a significant constraint.

At the opposite end are actively managed funds,

guided by a dedicated team of analysts and portfolio managers who make discretionary investment decisions. East spring Investments offers a suite of Asian bond funds that exemplify this approach, including the Asian Total Return Bond Fund, Asian Local Bond Fund, and Asian High Yield Bond Fund. These funds are designed to outperform their respective benchmarks by leveraging the firm's deep research capabilities and agile investment process. The core philosophy behind active management is the belief that inefficiencies exist in the market, and that skilled managers can exploit these mispricing's to generate alpha.

The effectiveness of this strategy is evident in the performance data of some of East spring's funds. For example, the East spring Asia Select Bond Fund (Class R) delivered a 1-year return of 7.2% and a 3-year return of 4.6%, outpacing its broader category averages. Similarly, under the stewardship of Portfolio Manager Rong Ren Goh, the Asian Local Bond Fund posted a 3-year annualized return of 7.3%, surpassing the benchmark’s 6.5%. While not all of Eastspring's funds have matched this level of success—the Asian Bond Fund (LU0154355936) showed underperformance versus its JACI benchmark over multiple periods—their existence highlights the potential for active managers to add value <URL9TV9G>. Alpha generation in Asian bonds is said to rely on a blend of deep credit assessment, macro agility, and careful risk management.

Choosing between active and passive investing ultimately comes down to strategic preference. 

An investor focused on minimizing costs and gaining broad market exposure might favor a product like PAIF. Conversely, an investor who believes in the power of expert analysis to navigate Asia's complex and segmented market should consider actively managed funds. Eastspring's offering caters to this latter group, providing specialized funds for different parts of the market, from high-quality IG to opportunistic HY, allowing investors to tailor their exposure based on their risk appetite. Ultimately, earning a seat at the table in Asian bonds means having the flexibility to choose the right tool for the job, whether it is a low-cost passive ETF for core exposure or a nimble active fund to capture specific opportunities.

| Investment Vehicle Comparison: Passive vs. Active | Passive ETF (e.g., PAIF) | Active Mutual Fund (e.g., Eastspring Funds) |

| :--- | :--- | :--- |

| Management Style | Rules-based replication of an index| Discretionary, manager-driven decisions  |

| Primary Goal | Track benchmark index returns (before fees)  | Outperform the benchmark  |

| Cost | Low Ongoing Charges Figure (OCF) of 0.18% | Higher annual management fee (~1.0%) plus sales charges <URL9TV9G> |

| Flexibility | Limited; follows index construction rigidly | High; allows for tactical shifts in duration, credit, and currency  |

| Portfolio Focus | Broad, government-heavy (e.g., <5% corporate) | Can be specialized (e.g., IG, HY, local currency) with deeper credit analysis |

| Performance Example | Underperforms benchmark by a small but consistent margin | Some funds outperform (e.g., Asia Select Bond Fund: 7.2% 1-yr return)  |

| Ideal Investor | Cost-conscious investors seeking broad market exposure | Investors willing to pay a premium for potential outperformance and specialized strategies |

 Eastspring Investments: A Synthesis of Strategy and Expertise

Eastspring Investments stands out in the crowded field of Asian asset managers due to a powerful combination of a long-term, resilient investment philosophy, a globally distributed yet deeply rooted team structure, and a clear focus on delivering value through active management. To earn a seat at the table in Asian bonds, an investor must partner with a firm that possesses not only scale but also the intellectual firepower to navigate the region's complexities. Eastspring's approach, built over nearly three decades, embodies these qualities, positioning it as a formidable player for institutional and discerning retail investors alike.

At the heart of Eastspring's methodology is a proven, medium-term investment view that synthesizes fundamental, valuation, and technical analysis to identify cyclical extremities in interest rates, credit spreads, and investor sentiment . This process is not a monolithic approach but a multi-factorial one, combining top-down macroeconomic forecasts with bottom-up credit research to determine optimal country, sector, and currency allocations . The firm's investment team, comprising 20 professionals and a shared quantitative analyst, brings a wealth of experience and diverse perspectives to the table. Critically, this team has weathered every major market event of the last two decades, including the 2007-2008 Global Financial Crisis, the 2011 European debt crisis, and the 2022 inflation shock, lending credibility to its claim of adaptability and risk management prowess. This track record of enduring market cycles is a cornerstone of the firm's value proposition, assuring clients that their capital is in capable hands during periods of turmoil.

The firm's organizational structure is another key differentiator. 

While headquartered in Singapore, Eastspring operates with a truly pan-Asian presence, maintaining offices in 11 key Asian markets, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Taiwan. This geographical footprint is not merely symbolic; it enables the firm to conduct granular, localized research and maintain direct engagement with a vast network of corporate issuers. The team includes 21 investment professionals with diverse nationalities, ensuring a culturally attuned and nuanced understanding of regional dynamics. This on-the-ground presence is further amplified by a dedicated research team of 12 members who conduct over 500 issuer meetings annually, fostering relationships and gathering intelligence that is inaccessible to firms reliant solely on desk-based analysis .This operational model gives Eastspring a significant edge in areas like primary market deal allocation, where scale and reputation are paramount.

This deep expertise is channeled into a range of specialized products designed to meet the needs of different investor profiles. The flagship Asian Bond Fund (ISIN: LU0154355936) delivers a comprehensive solution by investing in a diversified portfolio of primarily investment-grade securities to optimize total returns <URL9TV9G>, while emphasizing the importance of sustainable investing, Eastspring offers the Asia Sustainable Bond Fund (inception: Dec 2019), which applies a proprietary ESG framework to screen and select securities aligned with GSS principles. This fund integrates ESG factors directly into its bottom-up credit analysis, assigning risk premiums to material ESG issues identified through public data and direct engagement. Further specialization is offered through funds like the Asian Local Bond Fund, targeting alpha in the local currency space, and the Asian High Yield Bond Fund, catering to investors with a higher risk appetite seeking enhanced returns. This suite of funds allows investors to build a tailored Asian fixed income allocation, selecting the appropriate level of risk and thematic focus.

Finally, Eastspring's commitment to responsible investment is woven into the fabric of its operations. As a signatory to the UN Principles for Responsible Investment (UN PRI), the firm formally integrates ESG considerations into its investment process. This goes beyond mere exclusion; it involves active engagement with issuers to drive improvements in governance and sustainability practices. By leveraging  its extensive network of meetings, Eastspring can influence corporate behavior and help mitigate long-term risks, adding a layer of stewardship that passive strategies cannot replicate. This holistic approach—combining a resilient investment philosophy, a globally distributed research powerhouse, and a deep commitment to ESG—is what distinguishes Eastspring and equips investors with the tools needed to successfully navigate the intricate world of Asian bonds.

The Strategic Imperative of ESG Integration in Asian Debt

In today’s investment landscape, Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors have evolved from a niche consideration into a core risk framework and a potential source of alpha. generation in Asian fixed income. For investors aiming to "earn a seat at the table," a sophisticated understanding of ESG integration is no longer optional—it is imperative. The evidence suggests that ESG is not merely a trend but a structural force reshaping the Asian bond market, influencing credit quality, pricing, and long-term value creation. Eastspring Investments, among others, has recognized this shift, embedding ESG into its very DNA as a fundamental component of its risk management and investment process.

ESG’s influence on credit quality is both tangible and significant. Studies have shown that poor governance practices contribute to 50% of distressed debt issuers, making it a critical factor for credit analysts to monitor. Eastspring employs a proprietary ESG scoring framework to assess the preparedness and risk profiles of its potential investments. This framework helps identify "future losers"—issuers ill-equipped to handle sustainability transitions—and early movers who can capitalize on new opportunities. This analytical rigor is applied to a wide range of issuers, from utilities and infrastructure to non-discretionary retail and government-linked entities, emphasizing that ESG risks are pervasive across the economy. The firm’s engagement efforts are tangible; its research team conducts over 500 issuer meetings annually, using these interactions to advocate for better corporate governance, transparency, and environmental stewardship. This active ownership is a powerful tool to mitigate risks associated with misrepresentation, fraud, or reputational damage, which can have severe consequences for bondholders .

The financial implications of ESG are becoming increasingly clear, 

particularly through the phenomenon known as the "geranium." While studies on the topic present a mixed picture, there is a growing. There is a consensus that certain Asian markets exhibit a price premium for green bonds. A study analyzing the Asia-Pacific market found a statistically significant geranium in both the primary and secondary markets, where green bonds yielded 9 to 10 basis points less than conventional bonds. Other research confirms this effect in specific Asian countries like China, Korea, and Japan. This finding is corroborated by a broader international study showing that high-ESG-rated firms pay a lower yield to maturity at issuance, with the benefit primarily driven by strong environmental and social performance . This suggests that investors are willing to accept lower returns in exchange for alignment with sustainability goals, a dynamic that can reduce borrowing costs for issuers and enhance returns for investors.

Beyond green bonds, the catalytic effect of sovereign action is creating a virtuous cycle of market development. An IMF working paper found that when a country issues a sovereign green bond, it acts as a catalyst, stimulating subsequent private corporate green bond issuance. This "debut effect" leads to increased liquidity and improved reporting standards across the entire market, reducing yield spreads for private issuers by up to 9 basis points. This creates a powerful incentive for governments to lead on sustainable finance, ultimately benefiting the entire ecosystem. Initiatives like Singapore's plan to issue up to SGD35 billion in Green Bonds by 2030 are not just environmental commitments; they are strategic moves to deepen the local capital market and attract global sustainable capital.

For investors, this means that incorporating ESG is a way to tap into structural themes with long-term growth potential. The transition to a low-carbon economy in Asia is creating massive investment opportunities in renewable energy, electric vehicles, and green infrastructure, backed by supportive government policies. The Asian Development Bank projects that Asia’s infrastructure needs will surpass USD 26 trillion by 2030—a gap that private capital, particularly fixed income investors, is well positioned to help bridge.

 By focusing on ESG, investors can align their portfolios with these transformative trends, moving beyond a narrow focus on short-term credit spreads to capture value from long-term structural shifts. East spring’s emphasis on ESG is thus a pragmatic strategy to manage risk, generate alpha, and participate in the future of the Asian economy.

| ESG Impact in Asian Fixed Income | Evidence & Findings | Implications for Investors |

| :--- | :--- | :--- |

| Credit Quality & Risk | Poor governance contributes to 50% of distressed debt issuers [[23]]. ESG integration helps identify 'future losers' and early movers. | ESG serves as a vital tool for mitigating downside risk and pinpointing resilient issuers. |

| The 'Greenium' | Significant in Asia-Pacific bond markets, where green bonds yield 9-13 bps less than comparable conventional bonds. | Investors may pay a premium for alignment, creating a potential opportunity in non-green bonds or credits with strong underlying fundamentals. |

| Sovereign Catalyst Effect | Sovereign green bond issuance increases private corporate issuance, improves liquidity, and reduces corporate green bond yields by 2-9 bps. | Allocating to sovereign-led sustainable bond markets can indirectly support and benefit private corporate issuers. |

| Long-Term Themes | Transition creates opportunities in renewables, EVs, green buildings (which can cut energy use by 50%+) . India has set a target of generating 50% of its electricity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030. | ESG-focused investing provides access to structural growth stories tied to decarbonization and sustainable development. |

| Corporate Action | 57% of C-suite executives will base supplier choices on ESG factors. | Strong ESG performance can signal operational excellence and supply chain resilience. |

 Future Outlook: Capitalizing on Structural Tailwinds and Tactical Opportunities

Looking ahead, the Asian bond market is poised to continue its ascent, propelled by powerful structural tailwinds and punctuated by tactical opportunities that active managers are uniquely equipped to exploit. For investors seeking to establish a lasting presence in this dynamic region, a forward-looking perspective that balances long-term secular trends with short-term market dislocations is essential. The convergence of demographic realities, technological advancements, and evolving monetary policies creates a fertile ground for generating alpha, provided one navigates the inherent risks and complexities with skill and discipline.

A primary structural tailwind is the inexorable aging of populations across Asia, particularly in developed nations like Japan and South Korea. This demographic shift drives a sustained, long-term demand for safe, liquid, and predictable income streams—a perfect description of fixed income. Pension funds, life insurance companies, and retail investors are increasingly reallocating capital from traditional savings accounts to structured products like bonds. This creates a robust, domestic investor base that provides stability and support for the market, insulating it to some degree from the volatile flows of international capital. This domestic demand is already a significant factor, with domestic investors accounting for over 75% of new USD bond issuance in Asia, a figure that underscores the market's deepening roots.

Another powerful tailwind is the ongoing digitalization of the financial system. 

Online trading platforms and e-trading networks are gradually improving retail access to bond markets, democratizing an asset class that was once the exclusive domain of institutional players. While secondary market liquidity remains a challenge, the growth of electronic trading venues like RFQ, All-to-All, and Portfolio Trading is helping to foster a more efficient and transparent ecosystem. This technological progress lowers barriers to entry and enhances price discovery, making it easier for a wider range of investors to participate.

From a tactical standpoint, several factors point to attractive opportunities in the near term. First, Asian central banks are broadly expected to pursue a dovish monetary policy path in 2025, a sharp contrast to the tightening cycle in the United States. Central banks in India, Indonesia, Korea, and Singapore have already begun easing, and forecasts suggest a coordinated move towards lower rates across the region by the fourth quarter of 2026 . This divergence in policy paths supports Asian local currency bonds, as lower interest rates boost the value of existing holdings and increase the attractiveness of carry trades. Indeed, Asian local bond markets are noted for being driven more by local rates and FX dynamics than by global credit spreads.

Second, net supply in the Asian credit market is expected to remain negative or neutral in 2025, 

a significant factor supporting prices . This is driven by a combination of higher-for-longer US rates, which curb Asian corporate issuance, and strong access to cheaper funding via domestic bank loans and local currency bond markets. A negative supply backdrop means that new issuance is unlikely to overwhelm demand, helping to prevent the kind of sell-offs seen in previous years and creating a stable environment for investors.

Finally, the region's increasing self-reliance and diversification away from a singular dependence on the US market provide a durable hedge against geopolitical and trade-related risks. While US tariffs remain a concern, the economic fallout is expected to be contained, as evidenced by the market's relief rally following tariff announcements in April 2025. Many Asian issuers are insulated due to a heavy reliance on domestic consumption and diversified export markets. This resilience, combined with the region's structural advantages in a multipolar world, positions Asian bonds as a valuable component of any globally diversified portfolio seeking to reduce correlation and enhance returns .

To conclude, earning a seat at the table in Asian bonds is an achievable goal for investors who adopt a thoughtful, 

multi-faceted strategy. It requires looking beyond simplistic narratives and embracing the market's complexity. Success hinges on recognizing that Asia is not a monolith but a collection of diverse economies, each with its own unique strengths and vulnerabilities. It demands a preference for active management, which can leverage deep local expertise and agility to navigate technical nuances and find alpha in a market where value is often concentrated in specific sectors or issuers. And critically, it necessitates an integrated approach to ESG, viewing it not as a separate theme but as a core component of modern risk management that provides both downside protection and a window into long-term growth opportunities. By combining a long-term vision with tactical execution, investors can confidently navigate the evolving landscape and unlock the significant potential that Asian fixed income has to offer.

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