Nike Q4 FY2025 Earnings Preview & Analyst Outlook

Nike Stock: What Analysts Are Saying Ahead of Q4 FY2025 Earnings

Infographic comparing Nike stock performance and Q4 FY2025 analyst ratings with revenue, EPS, and price targets.

With Nike’s Stock Down 20% in 2025, What’s Next?

Nike, the world’s leading sportswear brand, is gearing up to release its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings after the market closes on Thursday, June 26, 2025. Investors and analysts are eager to see if Nike can address its recent challenges, with its stock declining approximately 20% this year. This post dives into what analysts think about Nike stock, why their opinions matter, and how this impacts investors, especially in India. Whether you’re a student learning about stocks or a professional investor, this guide breaks down the key insights in simple terms.

Insert infographic here summarizing Nike’s stock performance and analyst ratings

What to Expect from Nike’s Q4 FY2025 Earnings

Analysts predict Nike will report revenue of around $10.7 billion for Q4 FY2025, a 15% drop from $12.6 billion in Q4 FY2024. Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be $0.12, down sharply from $0.99 last year. These figures reflect challenges like:

Economic Pressures: Inflation and currency fluctuations have reduced consumer spending on non-essential items like sportswear.
Tariffs: New tariffs on Chinese imports have increased Nike’s costs, as much of its manufacturing is based in Asia.
Competition: Rivals like Adidas and Lululemon are gaining ground, especially in trendy athleisure wear.

Here’s a look at Nike’s recent performance:

Quarter	Revenue ($B)	EPS ($)
Q4 FY2024	12.6	0.99
Q1 FY2025	12.9	0.95
Q2 FY2025	13.3	1.01
Q3 FY2025	12.4	0.79
Q4 FY2025 (Est)	10.7	0.12

Insert bar chart here comparing actual vs. estimated revenue and EPS

These numbers show a downward trend, raising concerns about Nike’s growth. However, analysts are more focused on Nike’s future plans than its Q4 results alone.

Analyst Ratings: A Mixed Bag

Analysts have varied opinions on Nike stock, with 17 tracked by Visible Alpha giving:

8 “Buy” ratings: Suggesting confidence in Nike’s long-term potential.
8 “Hold” ratings: Indicating caution due to short-term challenges.
1 “Sell” rating: Reflecting skepticism about a quick recovery.

The average price target is $72, implying potential growth from the current price of around $60. Here’s what key analysts are saying:

Morgan Stanley: Lowered its price target to $61 from $70, citing a longer-than-expected turnaround due to weak sales in China and tariff impacts (Yahoo Finance).
Bank of America: Maintains a $80 target, focusing on Nike’s future outlook rather than Q4 results, though noting uncertainty beyond Q1 FY2026.
Goldman Sachs: Has a “buy” rating with a $75 target, praising Nike’s market leadership and potential for better profit margins.
Citigroup: Holds a “hold” rating, acknowledging Nike’s resilience but warning of near-term hurdles.

Insert infographic here summarizing analyst ratings and price targets

These mixed views show that while Nike faces headwinds, its strong brand and new strategies keep some analysts optimistic.

Nike’s Stock Performance: A Tough Year

Nike’s stock has fallen about 21% in 2025, compared to a 5% drop in the S&P 500. Over the past five years, Nike’s total return was around 50%, lagging the S&P 500’s 70%. However, from 2015 to 2020, Nike outperformed the market with a 200% return.

The recent decline has brought Nike’s stock to its lowest level since early 2020, before the pandemic boosted sportswear demand. Factors contributing to this include:

Weak Sales: Lower demand in key markets like China and Europe.
Competition: Brands like Lululemon are capturing the athleisure market.
Economic Uncertainty: Consumers are spending less on discretionary items.

Refer to the chart above showing Nike’s stock price vs. S&P 500

Nike’s Turnaround Plan: New Leadership and Innovation

In October 2024, Nike appointed Elliott Hill as CEO, replacing John Donahoe. Hill, a Nike veteran, has outlined a plan to revitalize the brand:

Product Innovation: New lines like the Nike Invincible running shoe and Air Max Pulse are gaining traction.
Digital Growth: Nike is enhancing its direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel, including its app and website, to reduce reliance on wholesalers.
Sustainability: Nike aims to cut its carbon and water footprints, appealing to eco-conscious consumers.

These efforts are critical as Nike competes in a $400 billion global sportswear market, where it holds a 17% share (Stock Analysis).

The Sportswear Industry: Opportunities and Challenges

The sportswear market is growing at 5% annually, but competition is fierce. Adidas is gaining in lifestyle wear, while Lululemon dominates athleisure. Nike’s North America business remains strong, but Europe and China face challenges due to economic slowdowns and shifting consumer preferences.

Despite these hurdles, Nike’s brand strength and global reach give it an edge. The company’s focus on digital sales and sustainability aligns with industry trends, positioning it for potential recovery.

Nike in India: Growth and Inspiration

India’s sportswear market is booming, with a projected 15% annual growth rate over the next five years. Nike is capitalizing on this through:

Local Partnerships: Sponsoring the Indian Premier League (IPL) and athletes like PV Sindhu, an Olympic badminton medalist.
Manufacturing: A facility in Tamil Nadu produces affordable footwear for Indian consumers.
Marketing: Engaging with fitness-conscious youth through campaigns and influencer partnerships.

Consider Ramesh, a Mumbai shop owner who sells Nike products. He’s noticed young customers, inspired by athletes like Sindhu, prefer Nike for its style and quality. However, high prices can deter some buyers. Nike’s budget-friendly Nike One collection helps address this, making the brand more accessible.

Insert photo here of PV Sindhu wearing Nike gear or a Nike store in India

What Investors Should Watch For

The Q4 FY2025 earnings report will provide clues about Nike’s future. Key areas to monitor include:

Turnaround Progress: Updates on Hill’s strategies and their impact.
Cost Management: Plans to offset tariff costs and improve margins.
Future Guidance: Revenue and EPS forecasts for FY2026.
Digital Sales: Growth in the DTC channel and online platforms.

Analysts suggest that while short-term results may disappoint, Nike’s long-term potential remains strong due to its brand, innovation, and global presence.

Actionable Steps for Investors

Review the Earnings Report: Check Nike’s investor relations page (Nike Investor News) for the latest updates.
Compare Competitors: Look at Adidas and Lululemon to understand industry trends.
Diversify: Consider spreading investments across sportswear and other sectors.
Stay Informed: Subscribe to financial news for analyst updates post-earnings.

Insert motivational graphic here with a quote like Stay Ahead”

Conclusion: Balancing Risks and Opportunities

Nike’s Q4 FY2025 earnings come at a pivotal moment. While the expected revenue and EPS declines signal challenges, the company’s new leadership, focus on innovation, and strong presence in markets like India offer hope. Analysts’ mixed ratings reflect this balance—short-term hurdles but long-term potential. For Indian investors, Nike’s growth in the local market makes it an intriguing option, though careful analysis is key.

By staying informed and watching the earnings call, you can make smarter investment decisions. Whether you’re a student exploring stocks or a professional building a portfolio, understanding Nike’s story can inspire you to take action.

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