Analyst Insights on Dollar Tree and Dollar General Stocks Ahead of Q1 2025 Earnings

Introduction: A Spotlight on Discount Retail Giants

Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Dollar General (DG) are leading names in the US discount retail sector, offering affordable products to budget-conscious shoppers. As they gear up to announce their Q1 2025 earnings on June 3 and June 4, 2025, respectively, investors and analysts are eager to see how these companies are performing amid economic challenges. With stock prices rebounding but still below their peaks, and analysts offering a mix of optimism and caution, the upcoming earnings could be a turning point. This post dives into what analysts think about these stocks, their financial outlook, strategic moves, and what it all means for investors, including those in India looking at global markets.

Visual Suggestion: Insert a bold infographic summarizing the importance of discount retail and the upcoming earnings for Dollar Tree and Dollar General.

Current Stock Performance: A Rebound with Room to Grow

Both Dollar General and Dollar Tree have seen their stock prices climb recently, reflecting renewed investor confidence in the discount retail sector. However, they remain significantly below their 52-week highs, suggesting potential for further gains if earnings impress.

• Dollar General (DG):

  • Current Price: ~$97
  • 52-Week High: $141 (30% above current price)
  • Year-to-Date Performance: +20%
  • 3-Month Performance: +30%

• Dollar Tree (DLTR):

  • Current Price: ~$90
  • 52-Week High: $121 (25% above current price)
  • Year-to-Date Performance: +20%
  • 3-Month Performance: +30%

This rebound is promising, but both stocks are trading at a forward earnings multiple of 17X, which is lower than the S&P 500 and the Zacks Retail-Discount Stores Industry average of 22X. This suggests they may be undervalued compared to peers, but their ability to sustain this momentum depends on the upcoming earnings.

Visual Suggestion: Insert a line chart showing the stock price trends of DG and DLTR over the past year, highlighting their recent rebound and distance from 52-week highs.

Analysts have set specific expectations for Q1 2025, with Dollar General showing more stability than Dollar Tree.

Company	Earnings Date	Q1 Sales Projection	Q1 EPS Projection	Zacks ESP Estimate	Zacks ESP % Above Consensus
Dollar General (DG)	June 3, 2025	$10.29B (+4% YoY)	$1.47 (vs $1.65 YoY)	$1.51	2%
Dollar Tree (DLTR)	June 4, 2025	$4.54B (vs $7.63B YoY)	$1.19 (vs $1.43 YoY, -17%)	$1.25	5%

• Dollar General: Expected to report modest sales growth of 4% to $10.29 billion, but EPS is projected to decline to $1.47 from $1.65 last year. The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction (ESP) suggests a potential beat, with the most accurate estimate at $1.51, 2% above consensus.
• Dollar Tree: Faces a steep sales drop to $4.54 billion from $7.63 billion, though same-store sales are expected to rise by 4%. EPS is forecasted at $1.19, down 17% from $1.43, but the Zacks ESP of $1.25 (5% above consensus) indicates a possible upside.

What is EPS? Earnings Per Share (EPS) measures a company’s profit per share of stock, helping investors gauge profitability. A higher EPS often signals stronger financial health.

What is Zacks ESP? The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction (ESP) uses the most accurate analyst estimates to predict whether a company will beat or miss earnings forecasts, offering a clue about potential stock price movements.

Visual Suggestion: Include a bar chart comparing projected Q1 sales and EPS for Dollar General and Dollar Tree, highlighting the differences in their outlooks.

Analyst Ratings and Price Targets: A Balanced View

Analysts have mixed opinions on both stocks, with ratings leaning toward cautious optimism.

Company	Analyst Ratings	Consensus Price Target	Recent Close Price
Dollar General (DG)	8 Hold, 5 Buy	$95.31	~$97
Dollar Tree (DLTR)	5 Hold, 4 Buy, 1 Sell	$85.40	~$90

• Dollar General: With 8 Hold and 5 Buy ratings, the consensus price target of $95.31 is slightly below the current price of $97, suggesting limited immediate upside. However, UBS analysts see “more tailwinds than risks,” citing consumer trade-down and competitor closures like Big Lots and Party City (Nasdaq).
• Dollar Tree: With 5 Hold, 4 Buy, and 1 Sell ratings, the consensus price target of $85.40 is below the current price of ~$90, indicating potential downside risk. Oppenheimer has warned that tariff risks and discretionary imports could pressure Dollar Tree, possibly leading to a downward revision of full-year guidance.

Key Insight: While both stocks are rated “Hold” or “Buy” by most analysts, their price targets suggest current prices may already reflect recent optimism. Investors should watch for earnings surprises or guidance updates that could shift these targets.

Visual Suggestion: Add a table summarizing analyst ratings and price targets for both companies, with a brief caption explaining the implications.

Both companies are making bold strategic moves to address challenges and position themselves for growth.

• Dollar General:

  • “Back to Basics” Strategy: Focuses on improving inventory management, remodelling stores, and reducing shrinkage (losses from theft or damage). This aims to boost profitability and efficiency (The Globe and Mail).
  • Store Closures: Closing 150 underperforming stores to optimize operations.
  • Challenges: Historical data shows Dollar General’s stock declines 74% of the time post-earnings, with a median one-day drop of 4.2% (Trefis). This trend adds caution for investors.

• Dollar Tree:

  • Family Dollar Sale: Selling its Family Dollar division to Brigade Capital for $1 billion, a significant loss from the $8 billion acquisition cost in 2015. The sale, expected to close in Q2 2025, aims to streamline operations 
  • Challenges: Tariff risks and global trade disruptions could increase costs, particularly for discretionary imports. Oppenheimer’s concerns highlight the potential for a downward revision in guidance

Relatable Example for Indian Readers: In India, a small-town shopkeeper like Ramesh, who runs a budget store in a village near Jaipur, faces similar challenges. By optimizing inventory and focusing on high-demand products, Ramesh increased his profits by 15% last year. Dollar General’s “Back to Basics” strategy mirrors such efforts, showing how operational efficiency can drive success in price-sensitive markets.

Visual Suggestion: Include an infographic illustrating Dollar General’s “Back to Basics” strategy and Dollar Tree’s Family Dollar divestiture, with simple visuals to explain their goals.

The discount retail sector is well-positioned to benefit from current economic trends. As consumers trade down to cheaper options amid inflation and uncertainty, Dollar General and Dollar Tree are seeing increased demand. The closure of competitors like Big Lots and Party City has further reduced competition, potentially boosting market share (IXBroker). Data from Placer.ai shows an 8.9% increase in customer visits to dollar stores in April 2025 compared to the previous year 

However, challenges persist:

• Tariffs and Supply Chain: Dollar Tree is particularly vulnerable to tariff risks, which could raise costs for imported goods.
• Economic Uncertainty: Rising costs and shifting consumer behaviours could impact profitability.
• Historical Volatility: Dollar General’s post-earnings declines highlight the risk of sharp price swings.

Indian Context: For Indian investors, the performance of US discount retailers offers lessons for local markets. Companies like D-Mart (Avenue Super marts) thrive by catering to price-sensitive consumers, much like Dollar General and Dollar Tree. Global trends, such as inflation and supply chain disruptions, also affect Indian retailers. For example, a Mumbai-based investor, Priya, diversified her portfolio by investing in US retail stocks, gaining 12% returns in 2024 by focusing on undervalued sectors like discount retail. Indian investors can apply similar strategies, balancing local and global opportunities.

Visual Suggestion: Add a comparison table of US discount retailers (Dollar General, Dollar Tree) and Indian counterparts (e.g., D-Mart), focusing on key metrics like sales growth and market share.

Actionable Guidance: What You Can Do

Whether you’re an investor, trader, or student, here are steps to take based on this analysis:

1. Monitor Earnings Reports:

   • Watch Dollar General’s earnings on June 3, 2025, and Dollar Tree’s on June 4, 2025, for updates on sales, EPS, and guidance.
   • Pay attention to comments on tariffs, consumer trends, and strategic progress.

2. Prepare for Volatility:

   • Traders should note Dollar General’s historical 4.2% median post-earnings drop and plan for potential price swings.
   • Consider setting stop-loss orders to manage risk.

3. Explore Global Trends:

   • Indian investors can study how US discount retailers adapt to economic challenges, applying similar strategies to local investments like D-Mart.
   • Research macroeconomic factors like inflation and consumer spending, which impact both US and Indian markets.

4. Diversify Your Portfolio:

   • Consider adding discount retail stocks to balance risk, especially if they remain undervalued compared to the broader market.
   • Use tools like Zacks Investment Research for detailed stock analysis.

Downloadable Resource: Create a checklist for evaluating retail stocks, including key metrics like EPS, sales growth, and analyst ratings.

Visual Suggestion: Include a motivational graphic with a quote like, “Invest smart, diversify globally, and seize opportunities in retail!”

As Dollar General and Dollar Tree approach their Q1 2025 earnings, analysts are cautiously optimistic but mindful of challenges. Dollar General’s stable sales growth and “Back to Basics” strategy position it as a safer bet, while Dollar Tree’s Family Dollar sale and tariff risks introduce uncertainty. Both companies benefit from consumer trade-down and reduced competition, but their ability to meet or exceed earnings expectations and provide positive guidance will be crucial.

For Indian investors, these US stocks offer insights into global retail trends that resonate with local markets. By understanding how companies like Dollar General and Dollar Tree navigate economic challenges, investors like Priya in Mumbai or students exploring finance can make informed decisions. Whether you’re investing, trading, or learning, the upcoming earnings are a chance to see how these retail giants shape their future.

Call-to-Action: What do you think about Dollar General and Dollar Tree’s prospects? Will they beat earnings expectations, or will challenges like tariffs weigh them down? Share your thoughts in the comments, and subscribe to our newsletter for more market insights. Explore related topics at or download our retail stock evaluation checklist!

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