Points
- It seems likely that Nvidia will report its fiscal fourth quarter earnings today, with expected revenue of $38.1 billion and net income of $19.6 billion.
- The stock recently dropped 4% to $134.40 per share but has recovered 90% from a January plunge linked to DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup.
- DeepSeek's low-cost AI model raised concerns, but research suggests it may boost demand for Nvidia’s GPUs long-term.
- Analysts expect Nvidia to "beat and raise" earnings, with stronger growth later in 2025, though there’s debate over short-term impacts.
Earnings Expectations
Nvidia is set to release its fiscal fourth quarter earnings results today, Wednesday, February 26, 2025. Analysts estimate revenue at $38.1 billion and net income at $19.6 billion for the quarter ended January, with earnings per share at $0.85. The company previously guided for $37.5 billion (±2%) for Q4, and Q1 guidance is expected at $42 billion. These figures suggest strong growth, especially in the AI sector.
Stock and Market Context
Nvidia’s stock closed at $134.40 per share on Friday, down 4%, but it has recovered about 90% of the value lost in January when DeepSeek’s actions caused a 17% plunge, wiping out nearly $600 billion in market value. This was a record loss for a U.S. company, linked to fears over AI spending. However, recent market sentiment shows optimism, with an extended rally last week.
DeepSeek Impact and Analyst Views
DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup, released DeepSeek-V3 in December, costing $5.6 million to train on Nvidia’s H800 chips, sparking investor concerns. Yet, JPMorgan analysts suggest this could boost demand for Nvidia’s high-performance GPUs, while Jefferies expects Nvidia to "beat and raise," with stronger performance expected later in 2025 due to Blackwell expansion. It’s interesting that despite the initial shock, analysts see potential benefits for Nvidia, which might not be immediately obvious given the stock plunge.
Survey Note: Detailed Analysis of Nvidia Earnings and DeepSeek Impact
This note provides a comprehensive examination of the article from Yahoo Finance, published on February 26, 2025, addressing Nvidia's fiscal fourth quarter earnings expectations and the aftermath of the DeepSeek market shock. The analysis aims to cover all relevant details, ensuring a thorough understanding for readers interested in financial markets, AI technology, and semiconductor industry trends.
Article Identification and Context
The user's query referenced an article titled "Nvidia earnings are coming. ([Nvidia earnings report today DeepSeek impact](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-earnings-coming-heres-expect-100000392.html)). Given the publication date aligns with today, February 26, 2025, and the content matches the topic, it is reasonable to conclude this is the intended article, despite a slight title variation. The discrepancy may stem from the user's recollection, but the source and context align with Yahoo Finance's coverage.
Earnings Expectations and Financial Metrics
The article details Nvidia's fiscal fourth quarter earnings, expected to be released at the end of the trading day today. Key financial metrics include:
- Revenue Expectations: Analysts, compiled by FactSet, estimate $38.1 billion for the quarter ended January.
- Net Income Expectations: Estimated at $19.6 billion for the same period.
- Earnings Per Share (EPS): Analysts expect $0.85 per share.
- Previous Guidance: Nvidia set its Q4 revenue guidance at $37.5 billion, with a margin of plus or minus 2%, as per their [last report](https://qz.com/nvidia-third-quarter-earnings-blackwell-data-center-ai-1851704373).
- Future Guidance: FactSet analysts anticipate fiscal first quarter guidance to be set at $42 billion.
These figures suggest strong growth expectations, particularly given the AI-driven market, with Nvidia positioned as a leader in graphics processing units (GPUs).
Stock Performance and Market Reaction
Nvidia's stock performance has been volatile recently, influenced by broader market sentiments and specific events like the DeepSeek shock:
- Recent Performance: At Friday’s market close, the stock was down 4% to $134.40 per share.
- Historical Context: In January, Nvidia experienced a significant 17% plunge, wiping out nearly $600 billion in market value, triggered by DeepSeek's announcements, raising concerns about AI infrastructure spending.
- Recovery: The article notes an extended rally last week, with Nvidia recovering about 90% of the value lost during the sell-off, as detailed in a related [extended rally analysis](https://qz.com/nvidia-stock-ai-chips-deepseek-china-1851765288?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter).
This recovery indicates investor confidence, possibly driven by reassessments of DeepSeek's impact and Nvidia's strategic positioning.
DeepSeek Impact and Analyst Perspectives
The DeepSeek shock, caused by a Chinese AI startup, has been a focal point. DeepSeek released DeepSeek-V3 in December, a model costing just $5.6 million to train and develop on Nvidia’s reduced-capability H800 chips, as outlined in their [GitHub documentation](https://github.com/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-V3/blob/main/DeepSeek_V3.pdf). This low cost raised fears of reduced demand for Nvidia’s expensive AI chips, contributing to the January plunge.
However, analyst reports suggest a more nuanced outlook:
- JPMorgan Analysis: JPMorgan U.S. Equity Research analysts, in a recent report, argue that DeepSeek’s cost-efficiency and AI innovation will likely lead to “strong demand” for higher-performance GPUs. They believe Nvidia’s leadership in advanced AI chips will “unlock new use-cases,” potentially benefiting the company long-term ([JPMorgan equity research report](https://qz.com/quote/JPM)).
- Jefferies Insights: Jefferies analysts noted Nvidia’s stock has been “relatively range bound” since November due to fears over slower Blackwell shipments. Despite this, they “believe” Nvidia will deliver a “beat and raise,” though the magnitude is likely smaller than the typical $2-3 billion range. They expect beats to reaccelerate in the second half of 2025 as Blackwell expands, indicating confidence during product ramps ([Jefferies analyst note](https://qz.com/quote/JEF)).
This shift in perspective highlights how initial market fears may evolve into opportunities, particularly as AI innovation continues to drive demand.
Comparative Analysis with Other Sources
To ensure completeness, a related article from Quartz ([Quartz Nvidia earnings article](https://qz.com/nvidia-earnings-are-coming-heres-what-to-expect-after-the-deepseek-shock-1851765828)) was reviewed, which shares similar financial metrics and DeepSeek impact details. However, given the user's specification of Yahoo Finance, the primary focus remains on the Yahoo Finance article, which includes unique elements like promotional content (“Unlock stock picks and a broker-level newsfeed that powers Wall Street.
Supporting Data in Table Format
Below is a table summarizing key financial and market data from the article, enhancing readability and organization:
| Metric | Details |
|-------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Expected Q4 Revenue | $38.1 billion (FactSet estimates) |
| Expected Q4 Net Income | $19.6 billion |
| Expected Q4 EPS | $0.85 per share |
| Previous Q4 Revenue Guidance | $37.5 billion (±2%) |
| Expected Q1 Guidance | $42 billion |
| Stock Price at Friday Close | $134.40 per share, down 4% |
| January Stock Plunge | 17%, wiping out $600 billion in value |
| Recovery Post-Sell-Off | Recovered ~90% of value lost |
| DeepSeek-V3 Training Cost | $5.6 million on Nvidia’s H800 chips |
| Analyst Outlook (JPMorgan) | Positive, expects strong GPU demand |
| Analyst Outlook (Jefferies) | Expects “beat and raise,” stronger in H2 2025 with Blackwell expansion |
Social Media and Additional Resources
For the latest updates, the article references social media channels for Quartz, which may provide further insights: [Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/quartznews), [X](https://twitter.com/qz), and [Instagram](https://instagram.com/qz). These platforms could offer real-time reactions to Nvidia’s earnings release today.
X posts also provided additional context, with users like @Daring35991901 noting optimism that the DeepSeek selloff was a blip ([X post](https://x.com/Daring35991901/status/1894714161541910619)), and @DanielOakleyy highlighting expectations of 73% year-over-year EPS growth ([X post](https://x.com/DanielOakleyy/status/1894718358420889647)), reinforcing analyst views.
Conclusion
This analysis confirms that the Yahoo Finance article, despite a slight title variation, aligns with the user's query regarding Nvidia’s earnings and the DeepSeek impact. It provides a detailed look at financial expectations, market reactions, and analyst perspectives, ensuring a comprehensive response. The inclusion of tables and citations enhances the report’s utility for readers seeking both overview and depth.
Citations:
- [Nvidia earnings report today DeepSeek impact](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-earnings-coming-heres-expect-100000392.html)
- [Nvidia third quarter earnings Blackwell data center AI](https://qz.com/nvidia-third-quarter-earnings-blackwell-data-center-ai-1851704373)
- [Nvidia DeepSeek R1 AI model chips stock rout China US](https://qz.com/nvidia-deepseek-r1-ai-model-chips-stock-rout-china-us-1851748667)
- [Nvidia stock AI chips DeepSeek China extended rally](https://qz.com/nvidia-stock-ai-chips-deepseek-china-1851765288?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter)
- [DeepSeek V3 GitHub documentation](https://github.com/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-V3/blob/main/DeepSeek_V3.pdf)
- [AI glossary vocabulary terms slides](https://qz.com/ai-artificial-intelligence-glossary-vocabulary-terms-1851422473/slides/6)
- [Quartz Facebook page](https://www.facebook.com/quartznews)
- [Quartz X profile](https://twitter.com/qz)
- [Quartz Instagram profile](https://instagram.com/qz)
- [JPMorgan equity research report quote](https://qz.com/quote/JPM)
- [Jefferies analyst note quote](https://qz.com/quote/JEF)
- [X post on DeepSeek selloff optimism](https://x.com/Daring35991901/status/1894714161541910619)
- [X post on Nvidia EPS growth expectations](https://x.com/DanielOakleyy/status/1894718358420889647)
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